关于 投资 组合 的 思考 ， ERay 说 美股 EP18-2020.07.12【CC 字幕 】 Thoughts on Investment Portfolio, ERay said US stocks EP18-2020.07.12 [CC subtitles]

大家 好 everyone|hello Hello everyone

欢迎 来到 我 的 频道 我 是 ERay welcome|arrive at|my|attributive marker|channel|I|am|ERay Welcome to my channel, I am ERay

今天 是 2020 年 7 月 12 号 today|is|year|month|day Today is July 12, 2020

这 期 我们 会 聊 一 聊 关于 投资 组合 的 问题 this|period|we|will|talk|one|talk|about|investment|portfolio|attributive marker|question In this episode, we will talk about the issue of investment portfolios.

本来 这个 话题 我 是 想 放在 石油 公司 那一期 的 开头 说 originally|this|topic|I|am|want|put on|oil|company|that episode|attributive marker|beginning|to say Originally, I wanted to introduce this topic at the beginning of the episode about oil companies.

结果 内容 做 得 太长 了 result|content|make|emphasis marker|too long|emphasis marker But the content ended up being too long.

后来 想想 还是 单独 做成 一期 比较 好 later|think about it|still|separately|make into|one episode|relatively|good Later, I thought it would be better to make it a separate episode.

正式 开始 之前 请 大家 给 我 点赞 formal|start|before|please|everyone|give|me|like Before we officially start, please give me a thumbs up.

请 还 没有 订阅 的 网友 们 订阅 please|still|not have|subscribe|attributive marker|internet users|plural marker|subscribe For those who haven't subscribed yet, please subscribe.

如果 想 收到 我 节目 更新 的 通知 if|want|receive|my|program|update|attributive marker|notification If you want to receive notifications for updates on my program,

你 也 可以 打开 订阅 按钮 旁边 的小 铃铛 you|also|can|open|subscribe|button|next to|small|bell you can also click the little bell next to the subscribe button.

这样 我 上传 新 视频 你 就 能 第一 时间 收到 通知 了 this way|I|upload|new|video|you|then|can|first|time|receive|notification|emphasis marker This way, when I upload a new video, you will receive a notification right away.

再次 感谢 大家 的 支持 again|thank|everyone|attributive marker|support Thank you again for everyone's support.

我们 下面 进入 主题 we|below next|enter|topic Now, let's get to the main topic.

今天 的 节目 从 一条 网友 的 留言 开始 说 today|attributive marker|program|from|one|netizen|attributive marker|message|start|say Today's program starts with a comment from a viewer.

网友 Lucas 提问 netizen|Lucas|ask a question Netizen Lucas asked

关于 我 对 集中 投资 和 分散 投资 的 看法 about|I|on|concentrated|investment|and|diversified|investment|attributive marker|opinion About my views on concentrated investment and diversified investment

留言 是 这么 说 的 message|is|this way|say|emphasis marker The comment said this

如果 按 你 之前 视频 里 说 的 所有 股票 进行 建仓 if|according to|you|before|video|in|say|attributive marker|all|stocks|carry out|build positions If I build a position in all the stocks you mentioned in your previous video

可能 做到 后面 就 会 变成 大盘 possibly|achieve|later|then|will|become|market It may become the market later.

不如 简单 点 买 个 s&p; 500 rather than|simple|a bit|buy|one|| It's simpler to just buy an S&P 500.

集中 投资 的话 又 是 左 看 右 看 各个 都 想 买 focus|investment|if|again|is|left|look|right|look|each|all|want|buy If you concentrate your investments, you'll be looking left and right, wanting to buy everything.

我 个人 的 倾向 是 分散 加 个股 集中 I|personal|attributive marker|tendency|is|diversified|plus|individual stocks|concentrated My personal tendency is to diversify and focus on individual stocks.

比如说 买 10 个 标的 for example|buy|individual|targets For example, buy 10 targets.

但 前 三 到 五个 占 持仓 的 70%-90% but|first|three|to|five|account for|positions|attributive marker But the first three to five account for 70%-90% of the holdings.

不 知道 你 是 怎么 看 的 not|know|you|are|how|view|emphasis marker I don't know how you see it.

这 其实 是 个 很 好 的 话题 this|actually|is|a|very|good|attributive marker|topic This is actually a very good topic.

让 我 作 一 整期 都 没 问题 let|me|do|one|whole period|all|no|problem Let me do it for a whole period, no problem.

其实 投资 组合 是 个 很 个人化 的 选择 ，没有 什么 对错 actually|investment|portfolio|is|a|very|personalized|attributive marker|choice|there is no|anything|right or wrong In fact, an investment portfolio is a very personalized choice, there is no right or wrong.

只 看 适 不 适合 自己 only|look|suitable|not|fit|oneself It only depends on whether it suits oneself.

我 在 之前 的 节目 里 主要 讲 的 是 公司 I|at|before|attributive marker|program|in|mainly|talk|attributive marker|is|company What I mainly talked about in my previous program was the company.

从来 没有 聊过 自己 的 持仓 策略 never|have not|talked about|own|attributive marker|position|strategy I have never talked about my holding strategy.

今天 正好 就是 这个 话题 today|just right|is exactly|this|topic Today happens to be this topic.

分享 一下 我 的 持仓 理念 来 抛砖引玉 share|briefly|my|attributive marker|position|philosophy|to|throw a brick to attract jade Let me share my holding philosophy to inspire discussion.

以下 说 的 就是 我 的 持仓 规划 below|say|attributive marker|is|my|attributive marker|position|plan What I am going to say below is my holding plan.

首先 我 计划 持仓 的 股票 总数 大概 是 40 只 左右 first|I|plan|positions|attributive marker|stocks|total number|approximately|is|only|around First of all, I plan to hold about 40 stocks.

这 基本上 已经 到 我 能力 的 上限 了 this|basically|already|to|my|ability|attributive marker|limit|emphasis marker This is basically the upper limit of my capacity.

分析 财报 决定 买入 时机 还是 很 花 精力 的 analyze|financial report|decide|buy|timing|still|very|spend|energy|attributive marker Analyzing financial reports to decide the timing of purchases is still very energy-consuming.

毕竟 生活 不是 只有 眼前 的 投资 还有 诗 和 远方 after all|life|is not|only|present|attributive marker|investment|and also|poetry|and|distance After all, life is not just about the investments in front of you, but also about poetry and the distance.

当然 眼前 的 投资 如果 做得好 也 可以 给 你 带来 诗 和 远方 of course|in front of you|attributive marker|investment|if|done well|also|can|give|you|bring|poetry|and|distant places Of course, if the current investment is done well, it can also bring you poetry and the distance.

这 40 只 股票 里 我 会 挑出 10 只 左右 this|only|stocks|in|I|will|pick out|only|around Out of these 40 stocks, I will select about 10.

作为 我 的 核心 仓位 as|my|attributive marker|core|position As my core positions.

每 只 的 上限 是 我 总 投资额 的 5% each|only|attributive marker|limit|is|my|total|investment amount|attributive marker The limit for each one is 5% of my total investment.

这样 十只 加 起来 最多 就是 50% this way|ten|add|together|at most|is So, ten stocks add up to at most 50%.

占 到 我 一半 的 仓位 occupy|to|my|half|attributive marker|position That accounts for half of my position.

接下来 我 还 会 挑出 10 只 股票 next|I|also|will|pick out|only|stocks Next, I will select another ten stocks.

作为 我 的 辅助 仓位 as|my|attributive marker|auxiliary|position As my auxiliary position.

每 一 只 的 上限 是 我 总 投资额 的 2% each|one|only|attributive marker|limit|is|my|total|investment amount|attributive marker The limit for each one is 2% of my total investment.

10 只 加 起来 占 总 仓位 的 20% only|add|up|occupy|total|position|attributive marker 10 of them together account for 20% of the total position.

这样 核心 仓位 和 辅助 仓位 加 起 来 20 家 公司 this way|core|position|and|auxiliary|position|add|up|to|companies|companies This way, the core position and auxiliary position add up to 20 companies.

已经 占 到 我 总 投资额 的 70% 左右 了 already|occupy|to|my|total|investment amount|attributive marker|around|emphasis marker They already account for about 70% of my total investment.

这 20 家 公司 将 是 我 花 最 多 精力 关注 的 this|number of|companies|will|be|I|spend|most|much|energy|focus on|attributive marker These 20 companies will be the ones I focus most of my energy on.

剩下 的 20 家 公司 我 会 把 它们 归类 成 小 仓位 remaining|attributive marker|companies|companies|I|will|put|them|classify|into|small|positions The remaining 20 companies I will categorize into smaller positions.

每日 股票 的 总资产 占比 不 超过 1% daily|stock|attributive marker|total assets|proportion|not|exceed The total asset allocation for daily stocks will not exceed 1%.

20 家 公司 就是 20% companies|companies|is 20 companies account for 20%.

那么 这 40 家 公司 加 起来 就 占 我 总 投资 的 90% 左右 了 so|this|companies|companies|add|together|then|account for|my|total|investment|attributive marker|around|emphasis marker So these 40 companies together account for about 90% of my total investment.

剩下 的 份额 我 会 有 给 现金 remaining|attributive marker|share|I|will|have|give|cash I will keep a portion of the remaining share in cash.

市场 上 总是 有 机会 market|on|always|have|opportunities There are always opportunities in the market.

手里 还是 要 留 一部分 现金 in hand|still|need|keep|a part|cash I still need to keep some cash on hand.

大约 10% 左右 approximately|around About 10%.

这样 可以 抓住 新 的 机会 this way|can|seize|new|attributive marker|opportunity This can capture new opportunities.

也 可以 用来 把 一家 小 仓位 的 股票 升级 成 辅助 仓位 甚至 是 核心 仓位 also|can|to use|to|one|small|position|attributive marker|stocks|upgrade|to|auxiliary|position|even|is|core|position It can also be used to upgrade a small position stock to a supporting position or even a core position.

当然 这 要 看 具体 情况 而定 of course|this|need|look|specific|situation|to be determined Of course, this depends on the specific situation.

说完 了 我 的 持仓 计划 接着 也 要 来 补充 一下 finish speaking|emphasis marker|I|attributive marker|position|plan|next|also|need|to|supplement|a bit After finishing my position plan, I also want to add a little more.

目前 这个 还 只是 我 的 计划 currently|this|still|just|my|attributive marker|plan Currently, this is still just my plan.

我 现在 的 持仓 距离 这个 状态 还 很 远 I|now|attributive marker|position|distance|this|state|still|very|far My current position is still very far from this state.

一方面 是 资金 离 我 计划 的 还 很 遥远 on one hand|is|funds|away from|my|plan|attributive marker|still|very|far away On one hand, the funds are still very far from my plan.

这个 也 不能 着急 只能 慢慢 来 雪球 也 要 慢慢 滚 this|also|cannot|be anxious|can only|slowly|come|snowball|also|need|slowly|roll This also cannot be rushed, it can only be done slowly; the snowball must also roll slowly.

另一方面 就是 选股 On the other hand, it's about stock selection.

我 目前 关注 的 股票 有 100 多家 I|currently|focus on|attributive marker|stocks|have|more than 100 companies Currently, I am paying attention to more than 100 stocks.

这 里面 值得 投资 的 公司 不少 this|inside|worth|investment|attributive marker|company|quite a few Among them, there are quite a few companies worth investing in.

从 里面 选出 我 的 小 仓位 和 辅助 仓位 的 30 家 左右 应该 不 难 from|inside|select|my|attributive marker|small|position|and|auxiliary|position|attributive marker|companies|around|should|not|difficult Selecting about 30 of my small positions and auxiliary positions from inside shouldn't be difficult.

但是 核心 仓位 就 比较 纠结 了 but|core|position|then|relatively|tangled|emphasis marker However, the core positions are more complicated.

我 对 能 入选 核心 仓位 的 公司 要求 肯定 是 最高 的 My requirements for companies that can be selected as core positions are definitely the highest.

既 要 盈利 和 财务 都 很 强 both|want|profit|and|financial|both|very|strong They must have strong profitability and financials.

还有 很 好 的 成长性 still|very|good|attributive marker|growth potential There is also very good growth potential.

最好 还要 有 一条 很深 的 护城河 best|also need|have|one|very deep|attributive marker|moat It would be best to have a very deep moat.

要求 的 过去 现在 将来 都 很 好 requirement|attributive marker|past|present|future|all|very|good The requirements have been good in the past, present, and future.

再 加上 分红 也 是 一项 重要 指标 again|plus|dividends|also|is|one|important|indicator Additionally, dividends are also an important indicator.

真的 很 难 选 really|very|difficult|choose It's really hard to choose.

在 我 之前 提到 过 的 所有 公司 里 at|I|before|mentioned|past tense marker|attributive marker|all|companies|in Among all the companies I mentioned before,

我 非常 确定 能 放在 核心 仓位 里 的 只有 一家 I|very|sure|can|put in|core|position|in|attributive marker|only|one company I'm very sure that there is only one that can be placed in the core position.

那 就是 百事可乐 that|is|Pepsi That is Pepsi.

3M 和 Visa 3M|and|Visa 3M and Visa

是 我 正在 考察 适不 适合 放在 核心 仓位 的 两家 公司 is|I|currently|assess|whether suitable|suitable|place in|core|position|attributive marker|two|companies are the two companies I am currently evaluating for suitability as core positions.

之前 提到 过 很 多次 的 AT before|mention|past tense marker|very|many times|attributive marker|AT I have mentioned AT many times before.

目前 只是 作为 辅助 仓位 currently|just|as|auxiliary|position Currently, it is only considered as a supplementary position.

占 比 不会 超过 总数 的 2% occupy|ratio|will not|exceed|total|attributive marker The proportion will not exceed 2% of the total.

上 一期 我们 说 石油 公司 last|episode|we|talked about|oil|company In the last issue, we talked about oil companies.

四家 公司 里 我 选出 来 的 是 雪佛龙 four|companies|in|I|selected|come|attributive marker|is|Chevron Among the four companies, I chose Chevron.

如果 要 入手 的话 if|want|get started acquire|in that case If you want to invest.

我 会 把 它 放 在 小 仓位 里 I|will|put|it|place|in|small|storage space|inside I will put it in a small position.

另外 之前 提到 过 的 一只 dividend king Additionally, there is a dividend king that was mentioned earlier.

CINF CINF

在 我 的 组合 里 也 是 小 仓位 in|my|attributive marker|portfolio|inside|also|is|small|position It is also a small position in my portfolio.

给 它们 留 的 空间 都 是 1% give|them|leave|attributive marker|space|all|is The space left for them is 1%.

说 到 核心 仓位 呢 say|to|core|position|emphasis marker Speaking of core positions,

其实 市场 上 满足 这些 条件 的 公司 也 不是 没有 actually|market|on|meet|these|conditions|attributive marker|companies|also|not|none there are indeed companies in the market that meet these conditions.

只不过 这 类 公司 几乎 从来 不 打折 just|this|type|company|almost|ever|not|discount It's just that these types of companies almost never offer discounts.

很难 给 你 用 便宜 的 价格 买到 的 机会 very difficult|to|you|at|cheap|attributive marker|price|buy|attributive marker|opportunity It's hard to find opportunities to buy at a cheap price.

所以 也 只能 等待 时机 靠 缘分 so|also|can only|wait for|opportunity|rely on|fate So we can only wait for the right moment and rely on fate.

另外 还有 一点 需要 说明 的 是 additionally|there is also|one point|need|to explain|attributive marker|is Additionally, there is one more thing that needs to be explained.

我 经常 在 节目 里 说 买入 的 时机 和 价位 I|often|in|program|inside|say|buy in|attributive marker|timing|and|price level I often talk about the timing and price for buying in the program.

那 你 看 我 几乎 没有 提到 过 卖出 的 事 that|you|see|I|almost|not|mention|ever|sell|attributive marker|matter Well, you see, I have hardly mentioned selling.

除了 被动 卖出 阿里巴巴 的 那 一次 apart from|passive|sell|Alibaba|attributive marker|that|time Except for that one time I passively sold Alibaba.

这里 暂停 三秒 让 我 先 心疼 一会 here|pause|three seconds|let|me|first|feel heartache|for a while Let's pause for three seconds here so I can feel a bit of pain.

我 翻看 了 一下 自己 的 交易 记录 I|flip through|past tense marker|a bit|own|attributive marker|transaction|record I looked through my own trading records.

发现 除了 阿里巴巴 我 已经 有 一年 多 没 卖出 过 股票 了 discover|apart from|Alibaba|I|already|have|one year|more than|not|sell|ever|stocks|emphasis marker I found that besides Alibaba, I haven't sold any stocks for more than a year.

作为 价值 投资者 我 买 的 标的物 不是 股票 而是 公司 as|value|investor|I|buy|attributive marker|target assets|is not|stocks|but rather|companies As a value investor, what I buy is not stocks, but companies.

我 的 目标 是 长期 拥有 I|attributive marker|goal|is|long-term|to have My goal is to hold them for the long term.

而 不是 等 它 的 股价 涨 了 再 卖 给 下一个 人 but|not|wait|it|attributive marker|stock price|rise|past tense marker|again|sell|to|next|person Not to wait for their stock prices to rise and then sell to the next person.

借用 巴菲特 的 一句 话 borrow|Buffett|attributive marker|one|saying Borrowing a quote from Buffett

一家 公司 如果 你 不 打算 拥有 10 年 以上 的话 one|company|if|you|not|plan|own|10 years|above|speaking of If you don't plan to own a company for more than 10 years

就 连 五分钟 都 不要 拥有 just|even|five minutes|at all|do not want|to have then you shouldn't own it for even five minutes

说 出来 可能 没人 信 say|out|possibly|no one|believe It might be hard for people to believe this.

那 我 是 按照 至少 持有 30 年 50 年 以上 that|I|am|according to|at least|hold|30 years|50 years|or more So I plan to hold for at least 30 to 50 years.

甚至 传给 下一代 来 做 计划 的 even|pass on to|next generation|to|make|plans|attributive marker I might even pass it on to the next generation as part of my plan.

所以 我 宁可 在 买入 之前 多 花 一些 时间 做 深入 研究 so|I|would rather|at|buy|before|more|spend|some|time|do|in-depth|research Therefore, I prefer to spend more time doing in-depth research before buying.

而且 我 买入 的 时候 也 不会 一次性 把 仓位 买满 moreover|I|buy in|attributive marker|time|also|will not|all at once|emphasis marker|position|fill up Also, when I buy, I won't fill my position all at once.

而 像 谈恋爱 一样 and|like|dating|the same It's like being in a relationship.

慢慢 的 培养 感情 增加 仓位 slowly|attributive marker|cultivate|feelings|increase|position Slowly cultivate feelings and increase positions.

所以 我 买入 一家 公司 以后 so|I|buy into|one|company|after So after I buy into a company,

就 不 太 需要 再 怎么 考虑 卖出 的 问题 just|not|too|need|again|how|consider|sell|attributive marker|problem I don't really need to think about selling it anymore.

只要 它 的 基本面 没有 发生 重大 变化 as long as|it|attributive marker|fundamentals|not|happen|significant|changes As long as its fundamentals have not undergone significant changes.

违背 了 我 当时 买入 它 的 初衷 violate|past tense marker|I|at that time|buy|it|attributive marker|original intention It would go against the original intention I had when I bought it.

那 我 就 继续 持有 that|I|then|continue|hold Then I will continue to hold it.

再说 一 买 一 卖 这 是 两次 操作 furthermore|one|buy|one|sell|this|is|two times|operation Besides, buying and selling is two separate operations.

多 一次 操作 就 多 一次 犯错 的 机会 more|one time|operation|then|more|one time|make mistakes|attributive marker|opportunity The more operations I perform, the more chances I have to make mistakes.

我 能 做到 一次 操作 少 犯错 都 很 不 容易 了 I|can|achieve|one time|operation|few|make mistakes|all|very|not|easy|emphasis marker It's already very difficult for me to make fewer mistakes in a single operation.

让 我 两次 操作 都 看准 不 犯错 let|me|twice|operation|all|see clearly|not|make mistakes Let me ensure that I don't make mistakes in both operations.

那 简直 是 天方夜谭 that|simply|is|fantasy That would be simply a fantasy.

既然 做 不到 那 我 就 减少 操作 的 次数 since|do|not able to|then|I|just|reduce|operation|attributive marker|number of times Since I can't do it, I will just reduce the number of operations.

只 关注 买 这边 的 操作 就 好 only|focus on|buying|this side|attributive marker|operation|just|fine I will just focus on the buying operations.

我 特意 把 投资 分 的 足够 散 I|specifically|put|investment|distribute|attributive marker|enough|spread I specifically spread my investments enough.

好处 是 让 我 能 注重 基本面 benefit|is|allow|me|can|focus on|fundamentals The benefit is that it allows me to focus on the fundamentals.

不会 为 某 一只 股票 短期 的 涨跌 担心 will not|for|certain|one|stock|short-term|attributive marker|fluctuations|worry I won't worry about the short-term fluctuations of a particular stock.

我 相信 我 挑 的 公司 都 是 能 熬过 未来 很多 个 经济周期 的 I|believe|I|choose|attributive marker|companies|all|are|can|survive|future|many|measure word|economic cycles|attributive marker I believe that the companies I choose can survive many future economic cycles.

所以 就算 跌 了 我 也 会 安心 持有 so|even if|fall|emphasis marker|I|also|will|peace of mind|hold So even if the stock drops, I will still hold it with peace of mind.

对 我 来说 晚上 睡得 香 这 也 是 很 重要 的 一个 衡量 标准 for|me|to say|at night|sleep|well|this|also|is|very|important|attributive marker|one|measure|standard For me, sleeping well at night is also a very important measure.

而且 只要 基本面 没有 变化 这 就是 补仓 的 好 机会 moreover|as long as|fundamentals|no|change|this|is|average down|attributive marker|good|opportunity Moreover, as long as the fundamentals do not change, this is a good opportunity to add to positions.

40 多 只 股票 里 more than|only|stocks|in Among more than 40 stocks,

每个 月 总有 几只 股票 因为 这样 那样 的 原因 打折 every|month|always|a few|stocks|because|this|that|attributive marker|reasons|discounted there are always a few stocks each month that are discounted for various reasons.

所以 我 也 不 愁 买 不到 股票 so|I|also|not|worry|buy|cannot get|stocks So I am not worried about not being able to buy stocks.

没有 哪 一种 投资 策略 是 完美 的 no|which|one kind|investment|strategy|is|perfect|attributive marker There is no perfect investment strategy.

说完 了 我 认为 的 优点 咱们 也 说 说 缺点 finish speaking|emphasis marker|I|think|attributive marker|advantages|we|also|talk|talk|disadvantages Having talked about the advantages, let's also discuss the disadvantages.

首先 我 认为 是 资金 的 问题 first|I|think|is|funding|attributive marker|problem First, I think it's a matter of funding.

这么 分散 的 一个 组合 so|scattered|attributive marker|one|combination Such a diversified portfolio.

不 适合 太 小 资金 的 投资 not|suitable|too|small|capital|attributive marker|investment Not suitable for investments with very small capital.

几万 甚至 十几万 投资 都 没有 必要 采取 这样 的 模式 tens of thousands|even|over a hundred thousand|investment|all|no|need|adopt|such|attributive marker|model Investments of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands do not need to adopt this model.

这个 投资 组合 策略 是 给 更 大规模 的 资金 设计 的 this|investment|portfolio|strategy|is|for|larger|scale|attributive marker|funds|designed|attributive marker This investment portfolio strategy is designed for larger scale capital.

我 个人 的 投资 组合 现在 显然 还 没有 达到 这个 状态 I|personal|attributive marker|investment|portfolio|now|obviously|still|not|reach|this|state My personal investment portfolio clearly has not reached this state yet.

但是 正在 坚定 的 朝着 这个 方向 前进 but|currently|firmly|attributive marker|towards|this|direction|advance However, I am firmly moving in this direction.

另外 呢 我 认为 这个 投资 组合 策略 的 最大 缺陷 additionally|emphasis marker|I|believe|this|investment|portfolio|strategy|attributive marker|biggest|flaw Additionally, I believe the biggest flaw of this investment portfolio strategy

就是 成长性 受到 我 个人 投资 偏好 的 限制 just|growth potential|受到|I|personal|investment|preference|attributive marker|limitation is that its growth potential is limited by my personal investment preferences.

我 重仓 持有 的 都 是 有 稳定 盈利 的 成熟 的 公司 I|heavily invested|hold|attributive marker|all|are|have|stable|profits|attributive marker|mature|attributive marker|companies The companies I hold in large quantities are all mature companies with stable profits.

至少 经历 过 两个 以上 的 经济周期 并且 存活 下来 还 能 发展壮大 的 公司 at least|experience|past tense marker|two|above|attributive marker|economic cycle|and|survive|down|still|can|grow and develop|attributive marker|company Companies that have experienced at least two economic cycles and have survived while continuing to grow.

这种 选择 给 我 选择 给 我 带来 足够 的 安全感 This choice gives me enough sense of security.

但 肯定 也 会 错过 很多 大 黑马 but|definitely|also|will|miss|many|big|dark horse But I will definitely miss out on many big dark horses.

像 特斯拉 亚马逊 奈飞 这种 疯涨 的 公司 我 都 错过 了 like|Tesla|Amazon|Netflix|this kind of|crazy rise|attributive marker|companies|I|all|missed|past tense marker I have missed out on companies like Tesla, Amazon, and Netflix that have skyrocketed.

而且 以后 还会 错过 更 多 这样 的 公司 moreover|in the future|will also|miss|more|many|such|attributive marker|companies Moreover, in the future, I will miss even more companies like this.

想到 这里 我 也许 会 对 这个 组合 作 一点 修正 think of|here|I|maybe|will|to|this|combination|make|a little|correction Thinking of this, I might make some adjustments to this combination.

在 小 仓位 里 放 几只 这样 成长型 的 公司 in|small|position|inside|put|a few|such|growth-type|attributive marker|companies I will put a few growth-type companies in a small position.

但 总持仓 占 比 应该 不会 超过 5% but|total position|account for|ratio|should|not be|exceed But the total holding proportion should not exceed 5%.

所以 这个 组合 肯定 不会 是 个 暴涨 的 投资 组合 so|this|portfolio|definitely|will not|be|a|skyrocketing|attributive marker|investment|portfolio So this combination will definitely not be a skyrocketing investment portfolio.

而且 我 自己 也 不会 有 那种 不切实际 的 预期 moreover|I|myself|also|will not|have|that kind of|unrealistic|attributive marker|expectations Moreover, I myself will not have any unrealistic expectations.

如果 能 长期 稳定 的 和 大盘 同步 if|can|long-term|stable|attributive marker|and|market index|synchronize If it can be stable and in sync with the market in the long term,

甚至 能 稍稍 跑 赢 一点 大盘 even|can|slightly|run|win|a little|market or even slightly outperform the market.

我 就 很 开心 了 I|just|very|happy|emphasis marker I am very happy.

这样 加上 dividend 带来 的 复利 this way|plus|dividend|bring|attributive marker|compound interest This, combined with the compound interest brought by dividends,

长期 积累 下来 就 可以 跑赢 大盘 很多 了 long-term|accumulate|down|then|can|beat|market index|a lot|emphasis marker can accumulate over the long term to outperform the market significantly.

刚才 说 的 大 黑马 just now|said|attributive marker|big|dark horse The big dark horse I just mentioned.

其实 就 这个 话题 呢 也 是 可以 展开 一下 的 actually|just|this|topic|emphasis marker|also|is|can|expand|a bit|attributive marker Actually, this topic can also be elaborated on.

我 不 知道 大家 对 短期 投资 获得 暴利 这件事 是 怎么 看 的 I|not|know|everyone|regarding|short-term|investment|gain|exorbitant profits|this matter|is|how|view|attributive marker I don't know how everyone views the matter of making quick profits from short-term investments.

对 我 来说 短期 获得 暴利 虽然 很 爽 但 也 值得 警惕 to|me|speaking|short-term|gain|windfall profits|although|very|enjoyable|but|also|worth|vigilance For me, while making quick profits in the short term is very enjoyable, it is also worth being cautious.

因为 它 背后 是 有 巨大 的 隐患 because|it|behind|is|have|huge|attributive marker|hidden danger Because there are huge hidden dangers behind it.

这里 我 想 先 请问 大家 一个 问题 here|I|want|first|ask|everyone|one|question Here, I would like to ask everyone a question first.

你 认为 投资 和 赌博 有什么 区别 you|think|investment|and|gambling|what are|differences What do you think is the difference between investing and gambling?

可能 大家 会 有 各种 答案 possibly|everyone|will|have|various|answers Everyone may have various answers.

对 我 来说 如果 用 一句 话 就 能 说 清楚 这 两者 之间 的 区别 to|me|to say|if|use|one|sentence|just|can|say|clearly|this|both|between|attributive marker|difference For me, if I could explain the difference between the two in one sentence.

那 就是 投资 你 是 站 在 大 概率 赢利 这 一边 that|is|investment|you|are|stand|on|big|probability|profit|this|side That means investing puts you on the side of a high probability of profit.

而 赌博 你 站 的 是 小 概率 赢利 的 那 一方 but|gambling|you|stand|attributive marker|is|small|probability|profit|attributive marker|that|side While gambling puts you on the side of a low probability of profit.

天下 没有 十全十美 的 投资 机会 world|no|perfect|attributive marker|investment|opportunity There are no perfect investment opportunities in the world.

我 上次 说 阿里巴巴 和 期权 那期 的 时候 提到 过 I|last time|said|Alibaba|and|options|that issue|attributive marker|time|mentioned|past tense marker I mentioned Alibaba and options in the last episode.

当 你 的 博取 高 回报 的 同时 when|you|attributive marker|seek|high|returns|attributive marker|at the same time When you seek high returns,

面对 的 很 可能 是 概率 上 的 劣势 face|attributive marker|very|likely|is|probability|on|attributive marker|disadvantage what you are likely facing is a disadvantage in terms of probability.

这 话 说 得 更 直白 一点 this|words|say|in a way|more|straightforward|a bit To put it more bluntly,

追求 短期内 不合理 的 高回报 pursue|in the short term|unreasonable|attributive marker|high returns pursuing unreasonable high returns in the short term.

本质 上 都 是 在 和 概率 作对 essence|on|all|are|in|and|probability|go against Essentially, it is all about going against probability.

一次 两次 或许 侥幸 能 赢 但 时间 一长 次数 一多 once|twice|perhaps|by luck|can|win|but|time|long|number of times|many times Once or twice, you might win by luck, but over time and with more occurrences,

输 就是 个 必然 的 结果 lose|is|a|inevitable|attributive marker|result losing becomes an inevitable result.

所以 黑马 股 这种 机会 可遇 而 不可 求 so|dark horse|stock|this kind of|opportunity|can be encountered|but|cannot|sought Therefore, opportunities like dark horse stocks are something you can encounter but cannot seek.

碰到 了 当然 是 好事 encounter|emphasis marker|of course|is|good thing Encountering it is certainly a good thing.

但 我 会 把 它 归因于 概率 对 我 的 照顾 but|I|will|put|it|attribute to|probability|to|me|attributive marker|care But I would attribute it to probability taking care of me.

而 不是 自己 的 水平 有 多 高 but|not|oneself|attributive marker|level|have|how|high Rather than how high my own level is.

另外 一点 这件 事 让 我 警惕 的 地方 additionally|one point|this|matter|make|me|alert|attributive marker|aspect Another point that makes me vigilant about this matter.

就是 短线 获利 50% 100% 甚至 200% just|short-term|profit|even That is, short-term profits of 50%, 100%, or even 200%.

当 我 有 过 几次 这样 的 经历 之后 when|I|have|experienced|several times|this kind of|attributive marker|experience|after After I have had a few experiences like this,

我 的 心态 就 很 难 在 静下来 了 I|attributive marker|mindset|just|very|difficult|at|calm down|emphasis marker my mindset becomes very difficult to calm down.

我 会 看不上 那些 只能 带来 5% 8% 稳当 的 长期 投资 I|can|look down on|those|can only|bring|stable|attributive marker|long-term|investment I tend to look down on those long-term investments that can only bring 5% or 8% steady returns.

什么 复利 什么 滚雪球 What is compound interest? What is a snowball effect?

哪 有 一个 星期 翻倍 一个月 五倍 来 的 爽 where|is|one|week|double|one month|five times|come|attributive marker|comfortable Where can you double your money in a week and quintuple it in a month?

我 会 越来越 倾向 于 赚 快 钱 I|will|more and more|tend|to|earn|quick|money I will increasingly lean towards making quick money.

沉浸 在 这种 刺激 里 immersed|in|this kind of|stimulation|inside Immersed in this kind of excitement.

越来越 盼望 这样 的 刺激 more and more|hope|this kind of|attributive marker|stimulation Increasingly looking forward to such excitement

直到 有 一天 被 概率 反噬 until|there is|one day|by|probability|backfire Until one day it backfires due to probability

但 恰恰 就是 那些 让 我们 看不上 的 长期 投资 but|precisely|is|those|make|us|look down on|attributive marker|long-term|investment But precisely those long-term investments that we look down upon

会 帮 我们 长期 的 稳当 的 积累 财富 will|help|us|long-term|attributive marker|stable|attributive marker|accumulate|wealth Will help us accumulate wealth steadily in the long run

其实 概率 也 是 一种 资源 actually|probability|also|is|one kind of|resource In fact, probability is also a kind of resource.

有 一个 词 叫 “概率 权 ” have|one|word|called|probability|right There is a term called 'probability rights'.

作为 投资者 我 的 目标 就是 获得 更大 的 概率 权 as|investor|my|attributive marker|goal|is|obtain|greater|attributive marker|probability|rights As an investor, my goal is to obtain greater probability rights.

研究 财报 和 公司 的 基本面 就是 为了 获得 更大 的 概率 权 research|financial report|and|company|attributive marker|fundamentals|is|in order to|obtain|greater|attributive marker|probability|rights Studying financial reports and the fundamentals of companies is to gain greater probability rights.

我 的 节目 也 不是 为了 帮 你 找到 黑马 股 I|attributive marker|program|also|not|for the purpose of|help|you|find|dark horse|stock My program is not meant to help you find a dark horse stock.

很多 时候 我 只是 希望 通过 我 的 分析 和 对比 many|times|I|just|hope|through|my|attributive marker|analysis|and|comparison Many times, I just hope that through my analysis and comparisons,

能 帮 你 避开 一些 坑 can|help|you|avoid|some|pitfalls I can help you avoid some pitfalls.

来 改善 你 的 概率 权 come|improve|your|attributive marker|probability|rights To improve your odds.

好 吧 给 我 扯 得 太 远 了 good|emphasis marker|give|me|talk|degree marker|too|far|emphasis marker Alright, I've gone too far off track.

回到 网友 Lucas 的 问题 上来 return to|netizen|Lucas|attributive marker|question|on the topic Let's get back to the question from the netizen Lucas.

我 这个 组合 里 虽然 有 40 家 股票 I|this|portfolio|in|although|have|companies|stocks In this portfolio, although I have 40 stocks,

但 比 大盘 S&P500 ;还是 不够 分散 but|compared to|market|||still|not enough|diversified it is still not diversified enough compared to the S&P 500.

其实 对 大多数 投资者 来 说 actually|for|most|investors|to|say In fact, for most investors,

定 投 指数 基金 就是 个 非常 好 的 选择 fixed|investment|index|fund|is|a|very|good|attributive marker|choice investing in index funds is a very good choice.

长期 来看 long-term|view perspective In the long run,

大部分 投资者 是 跑 不 赢 大盘 的 most investors cannot outperform the market.

这 里面 甚至 也 包括 了 大部分 专业 机构 的 投资 基金 经理 this|inside|even|also|include|past tense marker|most|professional|institution|attributive marker|investment|fund|manager This even includes most professional institutional investment fund managers.

各种 折腾 下来 收益 还 不如 被动 的 指数 定 投 various|toss and turn|down|returns|still|not as good as|passive|attributive marker|index|| After all the struggles, the returns are still not as good as passive index fund investments.

但是 大部分 投资者 又 不 甘心 but|most|investors|again|not|willing However, most investors are still unwilling to accept this.

包括 我 自己 在内 include|I|myself|including Including myself.

总 觉得 自己 是 有 能力 跑 赢 大盘 的 那 一小 拨 人 always|feel|oneself|is|have|ability|run|win|market|attributive marker|that|||people I always feel that I am one of the few capable people who can outperform the market.

想 一想 也 是 很 无奈 的 一件 事 think|think about it|also|is|very|helpless|attributive marker|one|thing Thinking about it is quite a helpless matter.

关于 我 的 投资 组合 计划 就 先 说 这么 多 about|my|attributive marker|investment|portfolio|plan|just|first|say|this much|many That's all I have to say about my investment portfolio plan for now.

啰嗦 了 半天 talkative|emphasis marker|a long time I've been rambling on for quite a while.

我 其实 是 希望 这 段 内容 能够 抛砖引玉 I|actually|am|hope|this|segment|content|can|throw a brick to attract jade I actually hope that this content can serve as a catalyst for discussion.

因为 我 也 很 好奇 你们 是 怎么 计划 自己的 持仓 的 because|I|also|very|curious|you|are|how|plan|own|positions|attributive marker Because I am also very curious about how you plan your own positions.

我们 的 网友 里面 藏龙卧虎 we|attributive marker|online friends|inside|hidden talents Among our online friends, there are many hidden talents.

也 请 大家 在 留言区 里 讨论 分享 你 的 投资 组合 策略 also|please|everyone|in|comment area|inside|discuss|share|your|attributive marker|investment|portfolio|strategy I also invite everyone to discuss and share your investment portfolio strategies in the comments section.

切磋 一下 让 我们 都 能 得到 启发 完善 自己 的 计划 discuss|briefly|let|us|all|can|gain|inspiration|improve|own|attributive marker|plan Let's discuss a bit so that we can all gain insights and improve our plans.

我 也 很 期待 看到 你们 的 评论 I|also|very|look forward to|seeing|you all|attributive marker|comments I am also looking forward to seeing your comments.

好 吧 今天 咱们 就 先 聊 到 这里 good|emphasis marker|today|we|just|first|chat|until|here Alright, let's stop our conversation here for today.

今天 没有 财报 纯属 灌水 today|no|financial report|purely|nonsense There are no financial reports today, just chatting.

当然 分享 的 也 只 代表 我 个人 的 想法 不是 给 你 的 投资 建议 of course|share|attributive marker|also|only|represent|I|personal|attributive marker|opinion|not|to|you|attributive marker|investment|advice Of course, what I share only represents my personal thoughts and is not investment advice for you.

行动 之前 请 你 做好 功课 股市 有 风险 投资 需 谨慎 action|before|please|you|do well|homework|stock market|has|risk|investment|need|caution Before taking action, please do your homework. The stock market has risks, and investment requires caution.

好 了 节目 最后 感谢 你 的 观看 good|emphasis marker|program|finally|thank|you|attributive marker|watching Alright, at the end of the program, thank you for watching.

欢迎 给 我 留言 讨论 同时 也 请 你 点赞 分享 和 订阅 welcome|give|me|leave a message|discuss|at the same time|also|please|you|like|share|and|subscribe Feel free to leave me a message to discuss, and please like, share, and subscribe.

来 支持 我们 这个 社区 的 成长 come|support|our|this|community|attributive marker|growth Come support the growth of our community.

你 的 鼓励 就是 我 最大 的 动力 you|attributive marker|encouragement|is|I|biggest|attributive marker|motivation Your encouragement is my greatest motivation.

我们 下期 再见 we|next time|see you again See you next time.